The sluggish textile industry ↕•<↓has put domestic cott↕πon policies in a dil♥♥εemma.
Release time:
2018-01-29
Source:
For the cotton market, in addition to e×♥xternal pressures, there are va∑∏rious difficulties that are h ✘≈ard to express. First, th↕♠ e global downstream textile con∑♦®sumption is weak, leading tβ≥φo high inventory levels.
Regarding the forecasts for p≈®•roduction, sales, and inve₹ ≠ntory data, the USDA and the↑♦∞ International Cotto±×© n Advisory Committee✘₩§ have different statistica♣πδl standards, but their views are g&>enerally consistent.
Since 2012, the USDA has made sever♣₩al significant upward adju★® ©stments to inventory data φ→in its monthly supply and demand r₩eports. The forecast for' λ global inventory of 13π≠.232 million tons in the February ↑♠πsupply and demand report÷>λ was adjusted to 13.569 milli€↔on tons in the March repor γ¥'t, and then to 14.386 million to♥εns in the April supply and de∑∞λγmand report.
In the April report, the main₹≤Ω adjustment was an increase of 762>₹,000 tons in India's ¥÷δbeginning inventory. The May ≥≠£±supply and demand rep₽'₹ort continued to raise the forecast f™↓®or global cotton ending inventory< while lowering cotton consumptio¶×©"n. China's inventory-to-consumpti♦♦♥≤on ratio reached 68.♠<4%. After several adj$±∞ustments, the USDA's™∏ forecast for global consumption in t★γ♥♥he 2011/2012 fiscal βεyear varied by 2.5 million tons, red<₹ucing China's consumption b±'₩γy 1.2 million tons to just over 9 mi•→>llion tons.
Due to the cotton price protection poli≠↔↑>cy initiated by China last year, a la₹λrge amount of foreign co<♠tton has concentrated in th §e domestic market, exacerbating t™♠he domestic inventor← βy problem. The International Cotton βAdvisory Committee preα" dicts that this year C€§hina's inventory wil∏δ₽"l reach 5 million tons, more ≥>than double compared to last year, whil™"σ✘e global inventories €< in other countries and ©'regions will increase by a">™♥bout 14%, reaching 8.1 mil©♠÷φlion tons.
The sluggish domestic t×≈extile demand and high inventory data ¶♠∏&have put domestic policymaker<δ&s in a dilemma.
On one hand, the situation of import≥↓¥δ cotton being at a discount sta≠™'rted last year and has continued>® to the present. The price ★ difference between doβ ₹mestic and foreign cotton is as high aγ✔s several thousand yuan, leadin© εg to an increase in cott☆•on imports. Whether to issue import ↓™"as is a headache for the governm≤φ≥ent.
Issuing quotas stabili™≤zes the price of foreign cotton, and t™∑§he national policy of price protec&βtion that started last year benefi<✔¥€ts not only domestic cotton farmers±✘"σ but also makes China a saviα±λor for global cotton farmers ♦ under economic downturn due ♥↕£to large imports.
This business, no mattλ×↑er how you calculate it, is £ εβa loss. If a large amouγ★↔nt of imported inventory caα≤n be activated, after ™£$a period of high-cost digestion, it caβ₩"n eventually shift back™↔±↓ to downstream consumption.
But the problem is that the ≠'≠sluggish downstream market has no εt provided such an opportunitπ&y. It's like a mute person eating bittΩ©α₽er herbs; having accumulatedβ∏ so much cotton, how to σαdigest it later is also a prob₩'lem. If quotas are not issued♣↑, domestic textile compan<♠ies will face high-cost cotto"§n, and against major compet÷₹§itors with cheaper labor<♥ resources, such as $βSoutheast Asian countries, domestic ♥↔companies will also suffer losses.
Not to mention that other coun₹₹tries may adopt zero tariffs or >↔σother measures to sup♣™"∑port imported cotton, fu↑±∑rther reducing procurement£© costs for enterprises and w↑☆≠εidening the cost gap ≈εbetween China's cott♥&↕€on spinning and that of other countri$♣ es. The government's §commitment to farmers regarding€ ₩ storage cannot be broken. On one side are the farmers' earnings, and on the o¥ >ther side are the in×£"terests of textile companies; it is∏♣ likely difficult to εγ₽✘satisfy both.
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